Cyber Insights 2025: Quantum AI and the Cryptopocalypse
Start here : https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7304834678690054144-p8wc
In the world of cybersecurity, 2025 will be remembered as the year quantum threats became impossible to ignore. I’m Steve Hollands, CEO and CISO of Blackhills Quantum, and I’ve been sounding alarms about the coming cryptopocalypse since 2019 – warning that classical encryption (like RSA and ECC) was living on borrowed time. Back then, those warnings were met with raised eyebrows and skepticism; many experts insisted that viable quantum attacks were decades away. Some even dismissed the threat as “purely the imagination of the physicists”
Today, however, the landscape has shifted dramatically. Major scientific and commercial breakthroughs by industry leaders – and new evidence from the field – now vindicate what we at Blackhills have long been saying: the timeline to quantum-driven chaos is shorter than almost anyone expected.
Early Warnings and Early Skeptics
Looking back, the skepticism in 2019 was understandable. Conventional wisdom was anchored by Mosca’s Theorem, a model from Dr. Michele Mosca which essentially said: if the time to break your crypto plus the time to replace it exceeds the remaining useful life of your data, you’re already at risk. But many interpreted Mosca’s message as “you still have plenty of time”. As late as mid-2023, legendary cryptographer Whitfield Diffie was publicly arguing that quantum threats to RSA/Diffie-Hellman were a distant mirage – on the order of 3–5 decades away. In effect, Diffie defied Mosca’s urgent timeline and reassured the industry that current encryption would remain safe for a generation. Such sentiments left enterprises complacent.
Now Dr Diffie has taken a very different stance, proof is his paper published in 2024. A pivotal study titled "Advancements in Quantum Computing and AI May Impact PQC Migration Timelines" highlights the accelerating convergence of hybrid quantum-classical computing and AI technologies, which pose significant threats to current encryption standards. This aligns with our CEO, Steve Hollands' early insights into the diminishing timeline for quantum threats due to the synergy of classical supercomputing, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), AI, and quantum capabilities.
“Encryption is only safe until it’s not. Waiting for proof of a breach is waiting until it’s too late.” – Steve Hollands (Blackhills Quantum)
I stood virtually alone in 2019 when I urged governments and businesses to begin deprecating classical encryption and transitioning to quantum-safe techniques. I saw the writing on the wall: advances in both quantum and classical computing were accelerating, shortening the horizon for breaking traditional crypto. At conferences and in white papers, I cautioned that “harvest now, decrypt later” was not a far-off hypothetical but a present danger. We knew adversaries would stockpile encrypted data today to decrypt tomorrow. Yet the common response was that we were being alarmist. After all, if fully capable quantum computers (often called CRQCs – cryptanalytically relevant quantum computers) were 15+ years away, why worry now?
Fast-forward to today – and those early skeptics are notably quieter. A confluence of breakthroughs and expert analyses in the past year has shattered the comfy assumption that we have until the 2030s or 2040s to act. Let’s look at a few of those developments.
Breakthroughs Redefining the Timeline
IBM’s quantum leaps: IBM has aggressively pushed the envelope on quantum computing scale. In late 2023, IBM unveiled its Quantum System Two (QS2), a modular quantum architecture that can interconnect multiple processors. Initially, QS2 links three quantum units of 333 qubits each, but IBM announced plans to scale each unit to 5,000 qubits by end of 2024 – effectively a 15,000-qubit system within this year. And on the horizon for 2025 is the codename “Kookaburra” processor: a 1,386-qubit multi-chip module designed to be chained in parallel. Using novel communication links, IBM intends to connect three Kookaburra chips into one system with 4,158+ qubits. This quantum parallelization of multi-chip processors is a revolutionary approach, essentially creating a quantum supercomputer by linking modules. It marks a shift from mere qubit counts to connected qubit networks, bringing tremendous power. Notably, IBM’s own roadmap acknowledges that the cryptographic threat isn’t just about qubit quantity but also quality – error rates, coherence times, etc. Still, the sheer pace of progress has exceeded what most experts foresaw a few years ago. IBM’s 127-qubit processor in 2021 (“Eagle”) was impressive; a 4,000+ qubit cluster by 2025 is staggering. Caution is warranted (IBM itself projects major practical quantum breakthroughs by late-decade), but the trend is clear: the hardware is rapidly evolving.
Microsoft’s topological breakthrough: Not to be outdone, Microsoft announced in February 2025 a milestone many thought might never arrive: they have engineered the world’s first quantum processor powered by topological qubits. Dubbed “Majorana 1,” this quantum processing unit uses a Topological Core and a new class of materials (“topoconductors”) to create qubits that are inherently more stable. In a Nature publication, Microsoft’s researchers demonstrated a hardware-protected qubit – leveraging Majorana zero modes to store quantum information in a way that’s far less susceptible to noise. Majorana 1 is designed to scale to a million qubits on a single chip in the future, and Microsoft is already building a prototype system as part of a DARPA program, aiming for a fault-tolerant quantum computer “in years, not decades”. This is a profound development because topological qubits were the holy grail for quantum hardware; they promise orders of magnitude improvement in error rates. If Microsoft’s approach works as hoped, the timeline to a practical quantum computer (one that can reliably break encryption) suddenly accelerates. In other words, one of the biggest scientific obstacles to quantum cryptanalysis – qubit error correction – may be closer to resolution.
While IBM and Microsoft were vaulting forward, the cryptography world was digesting a bold thesis from Dr. Whitfield Diffie that ran directly against Mosca’s risk model. Diffie essentially suggested that we might have overestimated how soon quantum will wreck current encryption. Diffie and other panelists (including RSA co-founder Adi Shamir) pointed out that after 30 years of trying, quantum computing had yet to solve any practical problem faster than a classical computer. In their view, achieving a large-scale quantum codebreaker was still a distant mountain to climb – citing how even keeping a qubit stable for 1.8 milliseconds was newsworthy progress. This conservative stance effectively defied Mosca’s Theorem, which urges urgent migration to quantum-safe cryptography. At the RSA Conference 2023's Cryptographers' Panel, Dr. Whitfield Diffie expressed skepticism regarding the immediate threat posed by quantum computing to existing cryptographic systems.
However, in a preprint published in February 2024 titled "Advancements in Quantum Computing and AI May Impact PQC Migration Timelines," co-authored by Dr. Diffie, the focus shifts to the potential risks arising from the convergence of hybrid quantum-classical computing and artificial intelligence (AI). The paper discusses how this technological confluence could accelerate threats to classical cryptography and emphasizes the need for proactive research and action in developing quantum-resistant solutions.
You can access the full preprint here:
Advancements in Quantum Computing and AI May Impact PQC Migration Timelines[v1] | Preprints.org
This evolution in perspective suggests that while Dr. Diffie maintained a cautious stance on the immediate capabilities of quantum computing in 2023, he acknowledges in 2024 that the integration of AI with quantum technologies may necessitate a reassessment of timelines for transitioning to post-quantum cryptography, but not to panic.
So here we had a fascinating dichotomy: on one hand, companies proving dramatic quantum advances years ahead of schedule; on the other, luminaries urging caution in predicting crypto doom. How do we reconcile these views? The answer lies in recognizing that quantum risk is not a binary switch – it’s a continuum, and crucially, it’s not limited to purely quantum computers. This brings us to perhaps the most important insight of 2024…
A Shorter Timeline Than Expected – Validated
The cryptopocalypse – defined as the eventual breaking of current public-key encryption – was long seen as something that only happens when a full-scale quantum computer comes online. But recent developments show it could happen sooner, through a combination of technologies and tactics. An eye-opening article by Kevin Townsend on February 27, 2024 in SecurityWeek put it plainly: “the cryptopocalypse is not dependent upon quantum computers — it could happen through other means, at any time.”. Townsend’s Cyber Insights 2024: Quantum and the Cryptopocalypse piece features commentary from experts (myself included) and underscores two game-changing points:
First: The timeline for quantum code-breaking might be much shorter than the optimistic “2030s” estimates. Some of us argued that it’s possibly within this decade, or even the next few years, that adversaries could crack RSA-2048.
Second: This acceleration is partly because non-quantum methods (advanced classical computing, novel algorithms, AI) are already eroding the security of encryption, without waiting for a million-qubit machine.
One of the most striking validations of our warnings came from John Beane, CEO of MemComputing, as quoted in Townsend’s article. MemComputing has been researching in-memory computing ASICs that can factor large numbers using physics-based analog processing rather than quantum. Beane reported promising results factoring RSA problems up to 300 bits in polynomial time on prototype circuits. Extrapolating from their progress, he suggested that with a dedicated ASIC, it may be possible to factor a 2048-bit RSA key in sub-second time “in the next few years.”. Think about that: a breakthrough classical computer that could do in seconds what we assumed only a quantum computer could do in hours. If MemComputing or a similar approach succeeds, the cryptopocalypse could arrive before large-scale quantum computers even go online. In Townsend’s words, “the implication is that a non-quantum cryptopocalypse may be achievable before the arrival of quantum computers.”
Meanwhile, in that same article, I highlighted the resurgence of interest in quantum key distribution (QKD) as another response to the looming threat. Throughout 2023, as awareness of quantum risks grew, efforts accelerated to make QKD more practical – for example, developing QKD-on-a-chip modules and satellite-based QKD to overcome range and cost limitations. As I commented to Townsend, “with knowledge of the threats to data security that come with quantum computing becoming ever more prevalent, QKD adoption via QKD-on-a-chip will soar… [its] first use case is likely to be unhackable communications for IT, banking and medicine”. In short, organizations are finally preparing for post-quantum secure channels, realizing that even if we deploy PQC (post-quantum cryptography), it might not guarantee long-term safety. QKD, being information-theoretically secure, could eliminate the threat entirely – whether that threat comes from quantum computers or from exotic ASICs
All of this paints a clear picture: The timeline has shrunk. A chorus of voices – from SecurityWeek analysts to start-up CEOs – now echoes what Blackhills Quantum asserted years ago: we cannot assume we have until 2035 or beyond before today’s encryption falls. It could be 5 years; it could be tomorrow if a breakthrough algorithm emerges. And even if quantum machines themselves take longer, our adversaries aren’t waiting; they are investing in parallel approaches.
Cyber Insights 2024: Quantum and the Cryptopocalypse - SecurityWeek
The Rise of Hybrid Quantum–Classical Threats
One of the most under-appreciated developments (until recently) is the advent of hybrid cryptanalytic architectures – that is, combining the strengths of classical supercomputers, specialized accelerators (GPUs/ASICs), and nascent quantum processors to attack encryption. For a long time, people treated “quantum vs. classical” as an all-or-nothing dichotomy. But as I have often said, we don’t necessarily need a fully error-corrected quantum computer to start cracking encryption; we can achieve a lot by cleverly splitting the workload between classical and smaller quantum devices. In fact, I was among the first to publicly state that such hybrid quantum/classical systems, turbocharged with AI, would accelerate cryptanalysis timelines dramatically – essentially removing the need for a big CRQC in the near term.
That prediction is now playing out. In March 2024, a team of IBM researchers published a study confirming that hybrid quantum–AI algorithms can fast-track the breaking of encryption. They warned that the convergence of even moderate quantum computing with advanced AI/machine learning poses a “near-term threat” to today’s crypto, potentially bringing Q-Day (the day quantum capability breaks encryption) closer than expected. In essence, tasks that would require millions of qubits on their own might be accomplished with far fewer qubits by offloading parts of the computation to classical AI or vice-versa. This aligns perfectly with the approach we anticipated: use AI to optimize or reduce the problem space, use quantum for what it’s uniquely good at (like brute-forcing certain math), and use high-performance classical chips to glue it together. IBM's study is a wake-up call – it explicitly stated that combining Hybrid Quantum-Classical Computing (HQCC) with AI could undermine current encryption sooner than expected. The authors emphasize that organizations must make a “quantum-proof shift” now in anticipation of this hybrid threat
Is Q-Day Closer Than We Think? IBM Researchers Say Hybrid Quantum-AI May Pose Near-Term Threats
To put it plainly: a partial quantum computer of, say, a few hundred high-quality qubits working in tandem with clever classical algorithms might achieve in 2025 what we thought only a 10,000-qubit quantum computer could do in 2035. This is a paradigm shift in threat modeling. It means that waiting for a “complete” quantum computer is a fool’s errand – the attackers will not wait. They will use whatever mix of tools gives them an edge. We see this in other domains (like AI-augmented cyber attacks), and now it’s true for cryptanalysis as well.
Blackhills Quantum recognized this trend early. It’s why our approach to quantum security has always been holistic. We advocate not just for deploying PQC (the new NIST-approved algorithms) but also for considering quantum-enhanced classical threats. For example, how would your network fare if an AI system could intelligently prioritize which encrypted records to target with a small quantum computer on the cloud? Or what if a nation-state adversary used a farm of FPGAs alongside a quantum annealer to speed up breaking your VPN’s RSA handshake? These scenarios are no longer science fiction.
Notably, NIST’s forthcoming post-quantum standards (e.g., CRYSTALS-Kyber, Dilithium, etc.) are a critical step, but even NIST and the NSA acknowledge they are “quantum-resistant” not quantum-proof. Any algorithm can and eventually will be broken. We already saw a stark example: one of the NIST PQC finalists, SIKE (a Microsoft-developed algorithm), was cracked in 2022 using a classical PC in about an hour. That was before quantum computers were even in the mix! It underscores that mathematics itself can have unexpected weaknesses. So while we absolutely should deploy PQC (and Blackhills is actively helping clients do that), we must also prepare for agile crypto and hybrid defenses. In practice, that means building systems that can swap out algorithms on short notice and possibly layering classical and quantum defenses together. It also means monitoring the threat landscape continuously – keeping tabs on academic papers, like the recent one claiming to factor 2048-bit RSA with 20 million noisy qubits and 8 hours of runtime (a claim that, while debated, hints at how rapidly the academic goalposts are moving).
Blackhills Quantum’s Unique Capabilities – Beyond IBM and Microsoft
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7313878494877290497-fDoK
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7308137815584747520-SGWG
Confronted with this rapidly evolving threat, what can organizations do? At Blackhills Quantum Computing & Marketing (BQCM), our mission from day one has been to empower enterprises to get ahead of the cryptopocalypse. We blend deep cybersecurity expertise with quantum computing know-how to offer solutions that giants like IBM or Microsoft (focused as they are on hardware and cloud services) currently don’t provide. Our emphasis is on practical, actionable security measures that you can implement today to safeguard your data tomorrow. Here’s how we stand out:
Cryptographic Bill of Materials (CBOM) Automated Audit: One of BQCM’s flagship offerings is our CBOM audit tool, which gives organizations a full inventory of all cryptography in use. This is akin to a software BOM, but for crypto – listing every algorithm, key length, library, and certificate in your environment. Why is this important? Because you can’t fix what you don’t know you have. Since 2019, we’ve been telling clients that the first step to crypto agility is discovery: figure out where you are using vulnerable crypto (e.g. RSA-2048, SHA-1, old elliptic curves) and how exposed you’d be if it were broken. Our automated scanner can often map an entire enterprise’s crypto usage in a matter of weeks
Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Transition and Testing: BQCM provides end-to-end assistance for migrating to post-quantum algorithms. From pilot projects testing PQC in your applications, to integration with hardware security modules, to performance tuning. IBM and Microsoft certainly contribute to PQC (indeed, IBM scientists helped develop three of NIST’s four chosen algorithms).
Quantum Key Distribution and Quantum Randomness: We recognize that PQC alone is not a panacea. For ultra-sensitive communications, Blackhills partners with leading QKD and QRNG (quantum random number generator) providers. We can integrate QKD systems for clients who need absolutely unbreakable links – such as between data centers or between a satellite and ground station. Neither Microsoft nor IBM currently offers turnkey QKD services to customers. IBM has largely focused on algorithmic solutions over QKD, and Microsoft’s quantum efforts are centered on computing hardware. Blackhills, being vendor-neutral, can bring the best of the QKD world to you (for example, we’ve worked with companies like Quantropi, whose QKD technology achieved 142 Mbps of quantum-secure key exchange between Ottawa and Frankfurt)
Hybrid Attack Resilience and Advisory: Perhaps most distinctively, Blackhills Quantum bakes the reality of hybrid threats into our consulting. We offer Quantum Risk Assessments that account for not just a theoretical future CRQC, but also adversaries using AI and specialized classical hardware today. Our team uses the expertise of cryptographers and data scientists who stay on top of the latest research. We use that intelligence to continually refine our risk models. For instance, if a new algorithm reduces the complexity of cracking lattice-based crypto, we update your risk profile immediately. We stress-test your security architecture: “What if an attacker had access to a D-Wave annealer plus a million-core cloud cluster – could they crack this within 1 year? 1 month?” This kind of scenario planning is something you won’t find in a Microsoft datasheet or IBM product brochure. In fact, IBM’s own researchers now highlight the hybrid threat. (In March 2024, a team of IBM researchers published a study confirming that hybrid quantum–AI algorithms can fast-track the breaking of encryption see https://thequantuminsider.com/2024/03/26/is-q-day-closer-than-we-think-ibm-researchers-say-hybrid-quantum-ai-may-poses-near-term-threats/)
To illustrate how Blackhills Quantum (BQCM) compares with the big players, here’s a quick snapshot of our offerings versus those of Microsoft and IBM:
Blackhills vs. IBM vs. Microsoft: Practical Quantum Security Offerings
Cryptographic Bill of Materials (CBOM) – Automated crypto inventory and vulnerability audit. Full CBOM tooling to discover & monitor all cryptographic assets (keys, algorithms, libraries) enterprise-wide. Offers continuous updates and risk scoring. Only by Blackhills Quantum. The concept was introduced by IBM Research, with internal tools trialed, but they have no commercial product yet. Clients must do manual inventory or use third-party. Microsoft: There is no equivalent offering. It relies on customers to inventory and manage their own cryptography (with guidance from MSFT security documentation).
Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Migration & Testing – Support for deploying NIST PQC algorithms. Comprehensive PQC transition services: code scanning for legacy crypto, drop-in replacements (Kyber, Dilithium, etc.), compatibility testing, performance tuning, and crypto-agility frameworks. Hands-on implementation help. Only by Blackhills Quantum. It is only a limited offering by IBM. IBM offers Quantum Safe services and has contributed algorithms (e.g. Kyber). Provides toolkits (e.g. IBM Quantum Safe Toolkit) and cloud experiments, but focused on algorithms, not custom integration. ( again limited). Microsoft is updating its platforms for PQC (e.g. adding PQC to Windows CNG and Azure TLS). Their techcommunity Has a “Quantum Ready” program for guidance. However, direct consulting or tools to migrate existing apps are not provided by Microsoft.
Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) Integration – Use of quantum photons for key exchange. Partners with QKD/QRNG providers to deliver turnkey quantum-encrypted links. Can design hybrid solutions combining QKD with classical networks (e.g., satellite QKD for long distance.) By Blackhills Quantum only. This also through the expertise provided by partners from www.qsecdef.com from which Blackhills is a founding member.
IBM has conducted research in QKD and offers quantum random services on IBM Cloud, but no mainstream QKD product for customers. Focuses on PQC as primary. Windows: No offerings in QKD. Microsoft’s security stack currently emphasizes PQC and traditional encryption; quantum efforts are on computing, not communication.
Hybrid Quantum-Classical Resilience – Addressing threats from combined quantum + AI/ASIC attacks. Incorporates hybrid threat scenarios into risk assessments. Develops mitigation strategies blending PQC, classical security, and (where needed) quantum technologies. Continuous monitoring of new cryptanalytic advances (quantum or otherwise) with client-specific alerts. Only by Blackhills Quantum.
IBM researchers acknowledge hybrid threats and IBM’s roadmap envisions quantum-classical integration, but customer-facing offerings still assume a purely quantum threat model (CRQC). No dedicated hybrid risk service for clients yet. Microsoft’s public guidance focuses on future large quantum computers. No indication of addressing combined AI/quantum attacks in its security products. (Microsoft’s quantum efforts are mainly in developing topological quantum hardware.)
Blackhills Quantum (BQCM) is laser-focused on the practicalities of achieving quantum security. We aren’t building quantum computers; we are building the defenses and tools that people need until (and beyond) the moment those computers arrive. IBM and Microsoft are extraordinary companies doing groundbreaking research – IBM building real quantum hardware and quantum-safe algorithms, Microsoft pioneering topological qubits – but at the end of the day, a Fortune 500 CISO needs to secure their data today. That means knowing where your weak crypto lies, having a roadmap to replace it, and possibly augmenting with technologies like QKD. It also means not succumbing to false hope: PQC is essential, but not infallible.
You must remain agile and ready to pivot if one of these new algorithms gets broken or if a new threat vector (like a hybrid attack) surfaces.
This is why Blackhills Quantum offers a holistic “Quantum Resilience Roadmap.” We typically start with a Crypto Inventory (CBOM), then move into a Risk Assessment phase (using scenarios from Mosca’s model but also our own hybrid threat models), then help you implement PQC and crypto-agility, and optionally explore advanced solutions like QKD for your most critical links.
Along the way, we ensure your governance – policies, procedures, training – is aligned with this new era. After all, technology alone doesn’t solve the problem; people and process need to adapt too. For instance, key management practices may need updates when you introduce algorithms with larger key sizes or when using quantum-derived keys.
Urgency and a Call to Action
If there’s one message I want every reader to take away, it’s this: the time to act is now. We no longer have the luxury of dismissing quantum threats as a “future problem.” The breakthroughs of the past 12-18 months prove that the paradigm shift is already underway. Whether it’s an optimized classical attack that beats your encryption, or an unexpected jump in qubit quality, or a clever AI that halves the effort needed – the effect is the same: your encrypted secrets turning into plain text in an adversary’s hands. Every week of delay is a week that attackers (and researchers) are using to advance their capabilities. As one expert succinctly put it, “Time is the greatest asset in achieving post-quantum agility, and if organizations don’t start now, they will have nothing to show for it when time runs out.”
For years, those of us in the quantum security field have encountered a spectrum of reactions: denial (“this will never happen”), deferral (“I’ll worry about it in 5 years”), and occasional determination (“let’s tackle it proactively”). It’s time to move en masse from denial and deferral to determination. Regulators are waking up too – we see emerging standards and mandates (the U.S. government’s NSM-10 directive, for example, or guidelines in Europe) pushing for quantum-safe encryption adoption in the next couple of years. Don’t wait until compliance forces your hand; by then you might already be behind the curve or, worse, compromised.
In conclusion, I urge governments and enterprises alike: don’t be the ostrich with its head in the sand. The cryptopocalypse is not science fiction – it’s a looming reality, and perhaps sooner than the calendar date on your data-retention policy. Partner with experts who have been ahead of the game and can guide you through the transition. At Blackhills Quantum, we pride ourselves on being those guides. We raised the alarm early, and we’ve developed the tools and strategies you need to navigate this quantum upheaval.
Remember, the goal isn’t panic – it’s preparation. The new cryptographic landscape can be managed, but only if you start adapting now. In the words I often share with our clients: “Waiting for absolute certainty in cyber means waiting for disaster. Acting in anticipation means seizing the advantage.”
Let’s seize that advantage together – before it’s too late.